Saint Michael Traveler

The ‘Best options’ for the Middle East

James F. Smith stated [Worldly Boston, November 19, 2009]  offers a stark dose of realism “…negotiations with Iran has virtually zero chance of getting Iran to stop all enrichment of uranium…” Once we have acknowledged this reality, then we should once more take a real step forward to allay our fear that Iran may develop nuclear bomb as deterrence against Israel, an aggressive nuclear bomb state.

 If we really wish to create transparency and defuse the regional risk of a war initiated by Israel, I offer the following three steps:

 1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Iranian Consortium:

USA should join the Iranian nuclear fuel consortium. The other nation may include Japan, Germany, France, Russia and England to actively monitor the Iranian fuel cycle activity. IAEA has consistently asserted that the agency could not find any indications that Iran is diverting the fuel cycle for nuclear bomb development. Iran has asserted that their activities are limited to development of fuel for nuclear reactor.

 2. Nuclear Shield:

An international nuclear shield for all nations in the Middle East, including Iran, Israel, Turkey and all the Arab nations in the region.

3. A nuclear- bomb-free Middle East:

This action will remove any pressure from Iran to develop nuclear bomb in the future for deterrence against nuclear bomb Israeli state.

 USA representatives in the Congress must stop the hideous play of hypocrisy and face the facts in the Middle East, Israel has nuclear bombs. If we have any concern about the Iranian nuclear fuel cycle, then we must be very apprehensive about the Israel’s nuclear bombs.

 The national security is the driving force for Iran. If security is good for Israel, then, it is also good for Turks, Persians and Arabs.

The national security is the driving force for Iran. If security is good for Israel, then it is also good for Turks, Persians and Arabs.

Israel is the only nuclear bomb state in the Middle East. A nuclear bomb free Middle East will remove pressure from all the other nations, including Iran to develop nuclear bomb in the future for deterrence against Israeli’s nuclear bombs.

Soviet Union had to develop the nuclear bomb because USA had already developed nuclear bomb and we (President Truman) were making sure the Russians knew it. India, China and Pakistan developed the nuclear bomb because the other nations, i.e. India and China, Pakistan and India, used the bomb as deterrence against the other. Israel developed the bomb because of her fear of the Arabs; Iran was a friend and collaborator of Israel at the time. Now, Israel demands that she must be the only nation in the region to have the nuclear bomb.

President Truman said:
“Starting an atomic war is totally unthinkable for rational men.”
[Truman, public Papers]

Let us create a win-win situation for all of the nations in the Middle East. The nuclear disarmament must start somewhere, where to start? I suggest the following three steps to correct our failed foreign policy with respect to the Middle East:

1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Iranian Consortium:
USA should join the Iranian nuclear fuel consortium. The other nation may include Japan, Germany, France, Russia and England to actively monitor the Iranian fuel cycle activity. IAEA has consistently asserted that the agency could not find any indications that Iran is diverting the fuel cycle for nuclear bomb development. Iran has asserted that their activities are limited to development of fuel for nuclear reactor.

2. Nuclear Shield:
An international nuclear shield for all nations in the Middle East, including Iran, Israel, Turkey and all the Arab nations in the region.

3. A nuclear- bomb-free Middle East:
This action will remove any pressure from Iran to develop nuclear bomb in the future for deterrence against nuclear bomb Israeli state.

We and our representatives in the Congress must stop the hideous play of hypocrisy and face the facts in the Middle East, Israel has nuclear bombs. For almost 50 years we have been playing this game of patsy to Israel and her demands. We must place our national interest above those of Israel and recognize that we must be fair in dealing with all the nations in the region.

The United States must be the international leader for Nuclear Disarmament; Mr. President Obama I suggest we should start with Israel.

 Richard Silverstein: “There is a gradual process underway within Israeli military, intelligence and political circles which will lead to war with Iran.  The war will either be Israeli or American in origin.  I say war, because I believe that a series of attacks against Iran will set the stage for a long conflict between various sets of players in the west and Arab world.”

Israeli  Avigdor Lieberman is an ultra-nationalist politician and a  vocal advocate to start a regional war with Iran.

What options USA would have to remove Israeli  pressure from Iran to develop nuclear bomb in the future for deterrence against nuclear bomb Israeli state</a>. What are the steps required from Iran to allay our fear that Iran in the future may develop Nuclear Bomb because of Israel’s nuclear bomb capability?  There is no dispute that Iran is already a nuclear state, like Japan and  Germany.  

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT or NNPT), 1968, is a treaty to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. Among the 189 countries party to the treaty, five nations have nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, China and France (also permanent members of the UN Security Council).

Iran singed the NPT. Under this treaty Iran has the rights to enrich uranium, use nuclear byproducts for research, medicine, agriculture and produce nuclear electric power. There is no dispute that Iran is already a nuclear state. The states with this capacity are many; among them are Japan and Germany. Iran singed the NPT treaty; she does not have any nuclear weapons and according to IAEA is in compliance with the terms of the treaty.

The treaty requires that the members give up their rights to have nuclear weapons for defense; those who had nuclear weapons and had signed the NPT had agreed to eliminate their nuclear weapons. China, England, France, Russia, and USA had singed the NPT treaty. All these nations are in violation of the NPT.

Nuclear Warheads 2009
US: 9552
Russia: 12987
UK: 192
China: 176
France: 300
India: 75
Pakistan: 90
Israel: 200
North Korea: 2

SOURCE:
http://thebulletin.metapress.com/home/main.mpx”>BULLETIN OF ATOMIC SCIENTISTS, GUARDIAN/DEFENCE ESTIMATES

I suggest the following three steps to eliminate potential for Iran developing nuclear bomb in the future:

1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Iranian Consortium:
USA should join the consortium among others Japan, Germany, France and England to actively monitor the Iranian fuel cycle activity too. IAEA has consistently asserted that the agency could not find any indications that Iran is diverting the fuel cycle for nuclear bomb development. Iran has asserted that their activities are limited to development of fuel for nuclear reactor.

2. Nuclear Shield
An international nuclear shield for all nations in the Middle East, including Iran, from nuclear bomb states;

3. A nuclear- bomb-free Middle East
This action will remove any pressure from Iran to develop nuclear bomb in the future for deterrence against nuclear bomb Israeli state.

How did Israel acquire nuclear bomb? French built the Dimona heavy water reactor, trained and installed the facility for processing irradiated fuel to produce weapons-grade nuclear material. Approximately 2,700 scientists, technicians, administrative staff, and other workers are employed at Dimona. Since the facility was constructed in the late 1950’s the surrounding land has been altered to sustain groves of palms and gardens positioned to obscure the facility from the road and air. French built reactor at Dimona . The financial cost of the facility was paid by Germany.

 Mordechai Vanunu, Israeli nuclear technician, in 1986, provided descriptions and photographs of f the Dimona facility. This information supported the conclusion that Israel had a stockpile of 100 to 200 nuclear devices, a significantly larger nuclear capability than previously estimated.

Based on Mordechai Vanunu:” “President Kennedy tried to stop Israel from building atomic weapons. In 1963, he forced Prime Minister Ben Guirion to admit the Dimona was not a textile plant, as the sign outside proclaimed, but a nuclear plant.

“The Prime Minister said, ‘The nuclear reactor is only for peace.’ Kennedy insisted on an open internal inspection. He wrote letters demanding that Ben Guirion open up the Dimona for inspection. The French were responsible for the actual building of the Dimona. The Germans provided the money for the cost of the facility.

“Everything inside was written in French, when I was there, almost twenty years ago. Back then, the Dimona descended seven floors underground. In 1955, Perez and Guirion met with the French to agree they would get a nuclear reactor if they fought against Egypt to control the Sinai and Suez Canal. That was the war of 1956. Eisenhower demanded that Israel leave the Sinai, but the reactor plant deal continued on. Kennedy demanded inspections.

“When Johnson became president, he made an agreement with Israel that two senators would come every year to inspect. Before the senators would visit, the Israelis would build a wall to block the underground elevators and stairways. From 1963 to ’69, the senators came, but they never knew about the wall that hid the rest of the Dimona from them.

“Nixon stopped the inspections and agreed to ignore the situation. As a result, Israel increased production. In 1986, there were over two hundred bombs. Today, they may have enough plutonium for ten bombs a year.”

Unfortunately Israel’s nuclear posture is an existential threat to the Middle Eastern nations, especially Iran. American and Western European nations (France, Germany, England, Russia, China) collusion in their acceptance of Israel’s nuclear arsenal makes them hypocrites. Israeli nuclear bombs is one of the causes of the Middle Eastern regional instability.  Our attention has been on nuclear fuel cycle of Iran and we ignored that Israel’s nuclear bombs are  existential threat to the international peace.

 The Middle East should be the starting point toward a world free of all nuclear bombs.

Saint Michael Traveler

Do we bear some responsibility for election and re-election of Ahmadinejad? Yes we do! 

 Paul Findley in his article “ Cool Clinton Response to Khatami Initiative Shows Israel-Inspired Dual Containment Policy Not Yet Dead”, Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, April 1998, Pages 32, 101,
 “If President Clinton does not quickly come up with a generous, cooperative response he will leave a sorely embarrassed Khatami hanging, twisting in the wind—an easy target for the radical religious leadership within Iran that opposes any rapprochement with the United States and seems to have control over most foreign policy questions. The hard-liners in the Iranian government will have a field day and may well be able to discredit the new president, despite the 70 percent vote he received.”

 
Progressive Iranian MovementOur past political mistakes, and financial burdens we have placed on the Iranian people will not advance our long term American interests. To assist the Progressive movement in Iran, allow a greater exchange between the two societies, remove the burdens placed on the Iranian people by economic sanctions and restrictions. It is foolish to punish the people for our disagreements with their government.  By removing the burden, we allow change in demographics of Iran toward a larger middle class; thus, it will shift the internal Iranian policy from Traditionalists toward the Progressives.  We must support the Iranian Progressives.  The Progressives are young, better educated and often the middle class segment of the Iranian population. Iranian Traditionalist (religious, very nationalistic, often poor, and under educated) voted for re-election of Ahmadinejad. 

We will not advance our American interests, or the Progressive Iranian movement, by listening to those who advocate a more aggressive policy toward Iran.

Yes, Israel may attack Iran. But would USA join in and support Israel as we did for Sadam Hossein? What would be the consequence of this attack?

First of all it will unify the Iranian people in one voice against Israel and USA, count on it.
Second, the attack will not stop there; it will drag the entire region into an anti-American union against USA-England and Israel.

The attack will create a very powerful force of dedicated people with one purpose to remove Israel and USA from the region. The attack will be seen as a coordinated attack by USA using Israel as a surrogate.

The attack of Sadam Hossein on Iran consolidated Iranian and their government into a united force after1979 revolution. USA must think through the long term implication of a foolish attack on Iran before removing the leash from Israel. We have been in war in both Iraq and Afghanistan for about 7 years; count on a regional war for half-century. USA has been paying the price for our 1953 attack on the Iranian nation.

Dear President Obama
If you really want to help any progressive Iranian movement, may I suggest that we should stay out of the Iranian internal politics. We Americans hate any nation meddling in our internal affairs. Progressive Iranian population, the last thing they would need is the label of being attached to the Uncle Sam. Bush’s meddling in Iran worked against the progressive section of the Iranian society. I have used the term progressive, not moderates. Iranian Traditionalist (religious, very nationalistic, often poor, and under educated) are the majority of the Iranian population. The Progressives are young, better educated and often the middle class segment of the Iranian population. A search in demographics and the statistics of the Iranian population would support my statement.

The Iranian election was about who will control the democratic Iranian society, the Traditionalists or the Progressives. The Progressives, as a minority of the population, lost the election to Ahmadinejad.

We will not advance our American interests, or the the Prgoressive Iranian movement, by listening to the Republicans who advocate a more aggressive policy toward Iran. Your diplomatic approach to Iran will disarm the members of the Traditionalists and advance the progressive movements.

The change in demographics of Iran toward a larger middle class will shift the internal Iranian policy toward the Progressives. Our past political mistakes, and financial burdens we have placed on the Iranian people will not advance our long term American interests. To assist the Progressive movement allow a greater exchange between the two societies, remove the burdens placed on the Iranian people, and don’t punish the people for our disagreements with their government.

Did you read it too? French President Sarkozy in his private talk with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Wednesday, the official Israeli reporter said, Sarkozy delivered a message to Iran. The message said, France would start dismantling her nuclear bombs and remove them from their submarines if Iran would agree not making nuclear bombs in the future.

This is great news. France has stepped up to the plate, President Sarkozy said, and would set herself as an example for international nuclear disarmament. British government has also joined in the nuclear disarmament. Let us open a bottle of French wine and drink to a better future world, a world free of all nuclear bombs.

This may be a dream, but you never know.

 President Obama said:

“The third source of tension is our shared interest in the rights and responsibilities of nations on nuclear weapons. This issue has been a source of tension between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. For many years, Iran has defined itself in part by its opposition to my country, and there is indeed a tumultuous history between us. In the middle of the Cold War, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically-elected Iranian government. Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has played a role in acts of hostage-taking and violence against U.S. troops and civilians. This history is well known. Rather than remain trapped in the past, I have made it clear to Iran’s leaders and people that my country is prepared to move forward. The question, now, is not what Iran is against, but rather what future it wants to build. It will be hard to overcome decades of mistrust, but we will proceed with courage, rectitude and resolve. There will be many issues to discuss between our two countries, and we are willing to move forward without preconditions on the basis of mutual respect. But it is clear to all concerned that when it comes to nuclear weapons, we have reached a decisive point. This is not simply about America’s interests. It is about preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that could lead this region and the world down a hugely dangerous path.”

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Spiritual Leader of Iran, response to the President Obama’s speech:

It insisted that development of nuclear bomb is forbidden under Iran’s brand of Islam. He reiterated that Iran seeks only to generate electricity. He referred to a religious edict, or fatwa that he had issued at least four years ago in which he declared that the production, stockpiling or use of nuclear weapons was prohibited under Islam.

Khamenei said: “Our nation says we want to have a nuclear industry”. “We want to use nuclear energy in a peaceful way. However, the West and America say that the Iranian nation is seeking to make a nuclear bomb. Why are they telling lies?” “The Iranian government and nation have repeatedly said that we do not want nuclear weapons. We have announced that according to Islamic principles, the use of nuclear weapons is forbidden. It is dangerous to keep nuclear weapons. We are not seeking to have them. We do not want them.”

Mr. President Obama, may I respectfully submit the following proposal for confronting the issue of potential nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East.

There is no dispute that Iran is already a nuclear state. The states with this capacity are many; among them are Japan and Germany. But, there is a great difference between being a nuclear state, i.e., nuclear fuel cycle capacity, and a state with nuclear bomb, such as India, USA, Russia, England, France, China, Israel and Pakistan. The steps required to allay our fear that Iran in the future may develop Nuclear Bomb are:

1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Iranian Consortium:

USA should join the consortium among others Japan, Germany, France and England to actively monitor the Iranian fuel cycle activity too. IAEA has consistently asserted that the agency could not find any indications that Iran is diverting the fuel cycle for nuclear bomb development. Iran has asserted that their activities are limited to development of fuel for nuclear reactor.

2. Nuclear Shield:

An international nuclear shield for all nations in the Middle East, including Iran;

3. A nuclear- bomb-free Middle East:

 This action will remove any pressure from Iran to develop nuclear bomb in the future for deterrence against nuclear bomb Israeli state. Unfortunately the attentions of the past two US Presidents (Clinton and Bush) were on nuclear fuel cycle of Iran. They both ignored that Israel had nuclear bombs. The Middle East should be the starting point toward your dream, Mr. President Obama, of a world free of all nuclear bombs.

Iranian nuclear fuel cycle is only an issue for Israel.  Israel and her Lobby are pushing the Iranian nuclear fuel cycle as an issue to divert attention away from the real issues of the Middle East: Palestinian Independent State, Israel’s nuclear bombs, and the occupied territories of Palestine, Syria and Lebanon.

Jeremy R. Hammond, May 14, 2009, article “Obama Administration Statements on Iran Nukes Not Backed by Intelligence” in Foreign Policy Journal stated that:

A recent unclassified CIA report to Congress says that it is not known whether Iran is working towards developing a nuclear weapon, despite consistent rhetoric from the Obama administration that Iran is pursuing the bomb.

The report was drafted by the CIA’s Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation, and Arms Control Center (WINPAC) and submitted to the Congress by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis.

It discusses the acquisition of technology related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) for the year 2008 and repeats the assessment of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that Iran “had been working to develop nuclear weapons through at least fall 2003, but that in fall 2003 Iran halted its nuclear weapons design and weaponization activities, and its covert uranium conversion- and enrichment-related activities.”

There is no dispute that Iran is already a nuclear state. The states with this capacity are many; among them are Japan and Germany. But, there is a great difference between being a nuclear state, i.e., nuclear fuel cycle capacity, and a state with nuclear bomb, such as India, USA, Russia, England, France, China, Israel and Pakistan.

The steps required to allay our fear that Iran in the future may develop Nuclear Bomb are:

A: Nuclear Fuel Cycle Iranian Consortium;

USA should join the consortium among others Japan, Germany, France and England to actively monitor the Iranian fuel cycle activity too. IAEA has consistently asserted that the agency could not find any indications that Iran is diverting the fuel cycle for nuclear bomb development. Iran has asserted that their activities are limited to development of fuel for nuclear reactor.

B: Nuclear Shield;

An international nuclear shield must protect all nations in the Middle East, including Iran;

C: A nuclear- bomb-free Middle East;

This action will remove any pressure from Iran to develop nuclear bomb in the future for deterrence against nuclear bomb Israeli state. The Middle East should be the starting point toward President Obama’s dream of a world free of all nuclear bombs.

 Would Jeffrey D. Feltman consider a nuclear-bomb-free Middle East as his mission for the Middle East?